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Hamptons.com
January 3, 2023

Interest Rates, Inflation, and Supply and Demand in the Post-Covid Hamptons Real Estate Market

John A. Viterittiby John A. Viteritti
in Real Estate, Trending
Home Real Estate
Patti Frank, Mortgage Banker with Guardhill in Southampton, NY

It is often said that all politics is local. That is also true of real estate markets. For perspective on how interest rates, inflation, and supply and demand are affecting the post-Covid Hamptons real estate market, I have interviewed Patti Frank of Guardhill Mortgage for the January article.

 

JAV: What are you seeing for the Hamptons real estate market as we enter into a new year?

 

PF: As we round the corner on 2022 and head into the new year, I have noticed that the current change in the Hamptons market is partly due to the economy at large and consumer sentiment.There are signs of weakening as inflation reached a 40 year high, and many economists expect that the country will enter into a recession by mid-2023. Yet running counter to this is a very strong job market. So who knows?

 

JAV: I hear from real estate brokers throughout the Hamptons that inventory is still very scarce. How do you account for that?

 

Patti Frank: It’s an oxymoron. Mortgage rates broke 7% recently, the highest since 2022, and twice what borrowers paid at the start of the pandemic. I feel that the days of record-low mortgage rates are over for the next few years, at least, but strangely, jacked-up home prices haven’t fallen in step.

 

JAV: What do you hear from real estate brokers regarding this point?

 

PF: I speak to real estate brokers daily about trends in the market, and all agree, especially with economic headwinds, the market is starting to cool. We can expect home prices to drop, but not as much as many homebuyers are hoping for.

 

JAV: What is their take on inventory?

 

PF: Inventory for sale has increased slightly, but is still below normal levels because homeowners currently have mortgages with low 3-4% interest rates and few choose to sell today. I think it’s worth noting that renters may finally see a reprieve from surging prices as that market cools.

 

JAV: What are your thoughts concerning the Federal Reserve’s future actions with respect to interest rates and their impact on the real estate market?

 

PF: With inflation, higher rates, a potential recession, and geopolitical tensions I don’t expect to see mortgage rates decline for at least another year or two. I read recently that the Mortgage Bankers Association is more optimistic, expecting rates to peak at 8% for 30-year in early 2023 and gradually come down to a range of 6% by the end of 2023.

 

JAV: What advice do you offer your clients?

 

PF: Buying a home in any market is a highly personal decision. I generally recommend they not try to time the market to predict what will happen next year, because that may not be the best strategy.

 

JAV: Have you seen any other loan products that have gained popularity recently?

 

PF: I have seen an uptick in home equity loan requests in the past three months. Clients want to have a line of credit available for future expenses such as college tuition, home renovations, and other unforeseen needs. For home purchases, many clients have found an Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) works better for numerous reasons: they plan on paying the mortgage off over the next 5-10 years, they are not sure if they will keep the house more than 5-7 years, or they are willing to take the risk of locking in their rate for 5, 7, or 10 years with an outlook that rates will come back down in the future and they can refinance.

 

JAV: Is there any danger you see that could cause a repeat of the mortgage crisis of 2007/2008, much of which was caused by ARMs?

 

PF: I don’t see a parallel to 2007/2008., because the majority of the ARM products underwritten at that time were known as “Negative Amortization ARMs, whereby a borrower was given four payment options, one of which was to defer interest to the back end of the mortgage, increasing the principal owed at maturity. It appears that many of the applications for new ARMs are for longer terms, with rates that reset after 7 or 10 years. So I guess borrowers are being more careful this time. And also, unlike the days leading up to the mortgage meltdown, the ARMs offered require more documentation and higher credit scores, among other things.

 

JAV: Have you encountered situations that required nuance and creativity?

 

PF: Yes. Over the past year, I have encountered a multitude of real estate borrowers with varying degrees of difficulty obtaining financing. A client may find themself in in a foreclosure situation and need the resources of a private lender. Conventional lenders are no longer interested in funding foreclosure bailouts, especially after the crash of 2008. Or a client may have inherited valuable real estate that they cannot refinance without sufficient income. Another example is a client may want to obtain a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) but their debt to income ratio does not qualify for conventional lenders. And given the current rising rate environment commensurate with rising default rates has made bridge loan products virtually obsolete. 

 

JAV: How do you think the increase in Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac  federally backed mortgages of up to $1,089,300 from $970,000 this year will affect the real estate market?

 

PF: The loan limits have increased annually. This is a bigger increase than most years. Borrowers can keep their loan amounts to $1MM or less to take advantage of better rates but I have found once the loan amount is $1MM or more borrowers tend to lean towards ARM products to keep their rate lower anyway and usually plan on paying the loan down quicker with annual bonus or commissions. It will be interesting to see how this very large increase impacts the purchase market. It might attract more borrowers who are on the sidelines waiting to see if prices will cool even further. 

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Southampton Animal Shelter to Host Happy Mew Year Event

Southampton Animal Shelter to Host Happy Mew Year Event

  • Whether you are walking the fast-paced streets of New York City or taking a leisurely beach stroll in the Hamptons, there’s a slight chance you might run into Elias Friedman, known online as “The Dogist.” His adoration of dogs, combined with his passion for photography, has led him to gain over 7 million followers on Instagram. The audience at his recent Guild Hall show reflects how much people truly love their dogs and how Elias does so much more than simply take picture-perfect dog portraits. He can capture the beautiful bond between man and his best friend. His book, This Dog Will Change Your Life, is already a New York Times bestseller. Guild Hall’s lobby was filled with fans excited to get their copy signed.⁠
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His guests included local dog lovers and friends of ARF (Animal Rescue Fund of the Hamptons). Attendees had front-row seats to a “Dogist”-style encounter: a casual conversation about how the dog entered the owner’s life, followed by a quick photo shoot revealing Elias’ methods for capturing the dog’s attention (hint: It’s dog noises and treats).⁠
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I had the pleasure of talking to Elias about how “The Dogist” came to be, rescue organizations, and the Hamptons.⁠
⁠
⁠
Let’s go back to the beginning. What inspired you to dive into photography?⁠
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We had a dark room because my dad was an amateur photographer, and I’d always liked cameras and gadgets. We had a couple of Labrador retrievers who were sort of my first muses and would happily sit for pictures. I was taking dog pictures from a young age and then fast forward to 2012 in New York City I was let go from my job and saw what other street photographers were doing like Humans of New York and The Sartorialist and thought why isn’t someone doing that for dogs and I thought I wanted to be the person, I dusted off my camera and the rest is kind of history. It took off pretty quickly because it turns out people like dogs just as much as I do.⁠
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Read the full interview at Hamptons.com (Link in Bio)⁠
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#dogist #arf #dogs #animalrescue #guildhall #hamptons
  • 167 Dune Road, Bridgehampton, NY 11932⁠
Saunders Exclusive: $42,500,000⁠
@jenniferwilsonhamptons 
@edbruehl @leemohlerehamptons 
@hamptonsrealestate 
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Experience extraordinary coastal living with this exquisite oceanfront estate on Dune Road in Bridgehampton. ⁠
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Designed by the renowned architect Francis Fleetwood, this remarkable property boasts 300 feet of private ocean frontage, complete with its own private boardwalk leading directly to the beach, all set on over 3 acres of prime land.⁠
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The charming shingle-style residence encompasses 4,200 +/- sq. ft. of luxurious living space, featuring 5 bedrooms and 5 full bathrooms, plus an additional half bath.⁠
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Read the full article at Hamptons.com (Link in Bio)⁠
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#duneroad #oceanfront #bridgehampton #realestate #hamptons #francisfleetwood ⁠
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  • The Hamptons have seen their fair share of collaborations and takeovers this summer. Still, nothing compares to The h.wood Group and Chase Sapphire Reserve’s transformation of Montauk hotspot Mary Lou’s into Delilah Montauk.⁠
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The four-day takeover combined unforgettable dining experiences with show-stopping live entertainment featuring performances by Zack Bia, Alesso, Gwen Stefani, and DJ Pee.Wee (Anderson Paak). ⁠
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Exclusively for Chase Sapphire Reserve cardholders, diners were treated to white glove hospitality and Delilah’s staples, including the famous chicken tenders and tuna tartare, and bold twists on Hamptons classics like lobster rolls, striped bass crudo, and crab and avocado toast. 

Check out more at Hamptons.com (Link in Bio)

#gwenstefani #alesso #djpeewee #chasesapphirereserve #delilahmontauk #montauk #hamptons
  • LVIS thrift shops are open Tuesdays through Saturdays 10 AM through 5 PM

donations are accepted Wednesday through Saturday 10 AM through 1 PM by appointment 

located at 95 Main St East Hampton
  • Check out the Top Hamptons Events This Weekend!⁠
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🚗 The Bridge IX⁠
📅 Sat, Sept 13 | 2–7PM⁠
📍 The Bridge, Bridgehampton⁠
Over 300 rare automobiles showcased across stunning landscapes.⁠
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🎬 23rd Annual Surf Movie Night⁠
📅 Fri, Sept 12 | 5:30–9PM⁠
📍 Southampton Arts Center⁠
Surfboard swap, live music & outdoor film screening. 🌊⁠
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🍝 San Gennaro Feast of the Hamptons⁠
📅 Sat, Sept 13 – Sun, Sept 14 | 10AM⁠
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Italian pastries, live entertainment & fireworks Sat @ 8:15PM 🎆⁠
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🎭 In Process: Roderick George⁠
📅 Sat, Sept 13 | 7PM⁠
📍 Guild Hall, East Hampton⁠
A special in-process presentation of The Missing Fruit (Part I).⁠
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🎤 Sheena Easton at WHBPAC⁠
📅 Sat, Sept 13 | 8PM⁠
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Grammy-winning artist live on stage!⁠
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☕ Cars & Coffee⁠
📅 Sun, Sept 14 | 9–11AM⁠
📍 Bridgehampton Museum⁠
Classic & exotic cars, food, drinks & live music.⁠
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🛍 Hampton Vintage⁠
📅 Sun, Sept 14 | 10AM–5PM⁠
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Shop unique vintage finds!⁠
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🎶 Hamptons Festival of Music Finale⁠
📅 Sun, Sept 14 | 4PM⁠
📍 St. Luke’s Church, East Hampton⁠
Featuring Cimarosa, Berlioz & Beethoven.⁠
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🍷 Wine Dinner with Pradorey at R.AIRE⁠
📅 Tues, Sept 16 | 6:30PM⁠
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Five-course tasting menu with exquisite wine pairings.⁠
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🎥 Toy Story 30th Anniversary Screening⁠
📅 Sept 12–15 | Various Times⁠
📍 Southampton Playhouse⁠
Celebrate Woody & Buzz’s timeless adventure!⁠
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Check out more events at Hamptons.com (Link in Bio)⁠
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#carshow #hamptons #sangennaro #sangennarofeast #winedinner #bridgeIX
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